Given that "the global order is unraveling" in "a world without leadership," Eurasia Group has some sorry news: "If we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis—the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown—it feels like 2018." What kind of crisis might be on the horizon? The New York-based political risk consultancy lists 10 possibilities, including several related to declining US influence.
The biggest seven:
- China: Filling a gap vacated by the US, China is extending its influence "with less resistance than ever before," threatening economies and suggesting friction with the US.
- Geopolitical accidents: With less trust among actors, missteps in North Korea, Syria, and Russia could lead to confrontations.
- Global tech cold war: The US and China are seeking new technologies in "the world’s biggest fight over economic power," while other countries fight for market dominance.
- Mexico: The outcome of a NAFTA renegotiation and a presidential election in July "both carry significant market risks."
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